One reason behind this misalignment: Garoppolo threw a pair of picks that first bounced off his receivers’ hands against the Steelers, and interceptions hurt AY/A regardless of context. Take early season wins against the Steelers and the Rams in which Garoppolo logged very good CPAE figures, yet averaged below the league median in AY/A. Though efficiency (AY/A) is correlated with accuracy (CPAE), it’s not always tied to it. The weather was otherwise good during the season, allowing us to track the ebbs and flows of Garoppolo’s play throughout the 19-game run that ended with Super Bowl LIV. The later contest at Baltimore was also likely impacted by rain, but surface conditions were much better than they were at a muddy FedExField. Note that the 49ers’ game at Washington was played in a torrential downpour, so attach an asterisk to that early clump of red. But there are also interspersed red capsules, and we can learn much from these clusters. The majority of the table is green, a good illustration of Garoppolo’s generally solid play. Studying the relationship between efficiency and accuracy will help us pinpoint some useful truths that may not have been apparent through casual viewing or box scores. CPAE is “completion percentage above expectation,” a metric from NFL Next Gen Stats.ĬPAE uses modern tracking data - air distance, target separation, sideline separation, pass-rush separation, passer running speed and time to throw - to gauge how Garoppolo’s completion percentage compares to the statistically average QB (who scores zero) in similar circumstances.ĭarker green denotes a performance further above the NFL median, while darker red signifies one further below it.
COMP% (NFL median is 64 percent) is standard completion percentage. AY/A ( NFL median is 7.0) is “adjusted yards per attempt,” based on a formula that rewards a quarterback for touchdown passes and punishes him for interceptions.
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